JANUARY — MARCH 2026 | UK & ROW | ALL FIGURES IN USD
the growth story
$351k
annualised run rate
+115% from dec 2025 arr ($163k)
165
active subscribers
doubled in q1 (77 → 165)
41.2%
returning customer rate
up from 31.9% in jan
$113
subscriber ltv
2.53x non-subscriber ($45). order 3+: $506
$4,704
monthly profit at zero ads
subscriptions alone are profitable at 54% margin
$8,566
monthly recurring revenue
up 63% in q1
10,643
total packs sold
up ~155% from q4 2025 (~4,171)
+31%
revenue growth mom
uk feb to mar. q1 avg: +30% mom
Early signs of product-market fit are strong. Returning customer rate has climbed to 41%, subscriber LTV is 2.53x non-subscribers, and approximately 40% of transactions occur without a paid click. The product resonates. The question is distribution model, not demand.
total sales by market (usd) — q4 2025, q1 2026, q2 forecast
q2 outlook
~$480k
q2 exit arr (forecast)
based on june forecast total sales, up from $351k today
4 new SKUs
launching across q2
blueberry 10mg, cold mint 13mg, nothing 4mg, spicy melon 4mg
uk performance
revenue, traffic, subscriptions, and retention
$56,857
q1 total sales
7,802
total packs sold
$35,190
ad spend
1.41x
blended mer
uk net sales (usd)
uk subscription growth
Metric
Jan
Feb
Mar
Trend
Traffic (Sessions)
8,823
10,029
12,243
+39%
Conversion Rate
4.03%
3.14%
3.30%
-18%
Transactions
356
315
404
+13%
AOV
$43.85
$50.07
$47.04
+7%
Packs Sold
2,150
2,406
3,246
+51%
Packs / Order
6.0
7.6
8.0
+33%
Returning Customer Rate
31.9%
38.1%
41.2%
+29%
Active Subscribers
77
119
165
+114%
MRR
$5,247
$7,203
$8,566
+63%
~40% of transactions are non-paid. This includes subscription renewals, returning customers, and organic discovery. The retention engine and brand awareness are generating consistent revenue without paid clicks.
Subscription churn: ~32% monthly. 219 additions vs 101 reductions in Q1. Subscribe-for-discount gaming is present. Tiered discount proposed for Q2.
row performance
sweden and rest of world — the pivot to organic
$12,591
q1 total sales
2,841
total packs sold
$9,117
ad spend
$6,052 in jan alone
1.38x
blended mer
January
Ad Spend$6,052
MER0.75x
Non-paid49%
Google CPA$315
CM3-$3,202
February
Ad Spend$1,320
MER2.45x
Non-paid61%
Google cutMeta only
CM3+$672
March
Ad Spend$1,745
MER2.75x
Non-paid68%
Organic growth+67%
CM3+$1,225
Cutting Google Ads was the right call. ROW flipped from -65.8% CM2 in January to +29.4% in March. Organic/social purchases grew from 24 → 40 (+67%) even without paid support. The challenge is scale, not profitability.
Metric
Jan
Feb
Mar
Trend
Traffic (Sessions)
4,885
1,753
4,388
-10%
Conversion Rate
2.01%
3.37%
1.91%
-5%
Transactions
98
59
84
-14%
AOV
$51.04
$61.34
$58.93
+15%
Packs Sold
1,012
736
1,093
+8%
Returning Customer Rate
28.3%
34.5%
35.5%
+26%
Active Subscribers
14
14
17
+21%
ROW strategy: Currently only running Meta in Sweden at minimal spend. Investigating legalities for expanding to other European markets. Haypp Group listing could be transformative for Swedish volume. SnuZone already shifting product.
unit economics
the honest picture, with actual 3pl costs from invoices
uk q1 contribution margin waterfall (actual 3pl costs)
Jan
Feb
Mar
Q1 Total
Net Sales
$15,328
$15,630
$18,558
$49,516
+ Shipping Revenue
$982
$1,043
$1,251
$3,276
- COGS ($1.50/pack)
-$3,225
-$3,609
-$4,869
-$11,703
CM1
$13,085 (80%)
$13,064 (78%)
$14,940 (75%)
$41,089 (78%)
- Ad Spend
-$11,086
-$11,348
-$12,755
-$35,190
- 3PL (actual invoices)
-$3,658
-$3,340
-$3,540
-$10,538
CM3
-$1,660 (-10.2%)
-$1,593 (-9.6%)
-$1,259 (-6.4%)
-$4,511 (-8.5%)
Trend is improving: CM3 margin moved from -10.2% to -6.4% across the quarter. 3PL costs include pick & pack, courier delivery, storage, and portal subscription (from actual weekly invoices). Excludes Shopify payment processing (~$500/month), Klaviyo, and plan fees.
$35,190
ad spend
86% of CM1. Meta CPA rose from $40 to $67 as spend scaled.
Portal subscription + storage. Fixed regardless of volume.
the profitable core
if we turned ads off tomorrow
Subscription MRR
$8,566
- COGS (165 subs × ~8 packs × $1.50)
-$1,944
- 3PL variable (165 orders × £5.37)
-$1,104
- 3PL fixed (storage + portal)
-$814
Monthly profit (subs only)
$4,704 (55% margin)
+ Organic orders (~30/month)
+$862
Monthly profit (subs + organic)
$5,566
The business underneath the acquisition spend is profitable. The loss comes from paying to acquire new customers. The question is whether that investment is building durable value (subscribers who stay) or leaking (churn, one-time buyers who never return).
subscriber ltv: the case for acquisition spend
$113
subscriber ltv
2.53x non-subscriber ($45)
$67
cpa to acquire
pays back by order 1-2
$506
order 3+ subscriber ltv
7.6x cpa. the retention prize.
subscriber ltv by order depth (oct 2025 — mar 2026)
Segment
Customers
Orders per customer
LTV
vs CPA ($67)
Non-subscribers
893
1.2
$44.58
-$22.42
Order #1 subscribers
207
1.85
$86.25
+$19.25
Order #2 subscribers
51
2.98
$156.38
+$89.38
Order #3 subscribers
12
4.92
$257.58
+$190.58
Order #3+ subscribers
4
6.5
$506.21
+$439.21
The CPA isn't the problem. Churn before order 2 is. Every subscriber who reaches order 2 generates 2.3x their acquisition cost. Every subscriber who reaches order 3+ generates 7.6x. The tiered subscription discount is designed to push more subscribers past this inflection point.
per-pack economics: dtc vs e-retail
DTC (UK, March)
Revenue / pack$5.72
Shipping rev / pack+$0.39
COGS / pack-$1.50
Ad cost / pack-$3.93
3PL / pack (actual)-$1.06
Margin / pack-$0.39
E-retail (at £3/unit)
Revenue / pack$3.81
Shipping rev / pack$0.00
COGS / pack-$1.50
Ad cost / pack$0.00
3PL / pack$0.00
Margin / pack+$2.31
DTC without ad spend generates $3.76/pack. DTC is the superior channel for returning customers and subscribers. E-retail is the superior channel for new customer acquisition. Each channel wins in its natural role.
marketing efficiency
uk channel performance and paid media analysis
uk ad spend by channel (q1)
uk mer trend
meta performance
Jan
Feb
Mar
Spend
$5,503
$9,832
$11,742
Purchases
137
134
175
CPA
$40.17
$73.37
$67.10
CPM
$12.02
$12.19
$12.66
CTR
2.74%
1.90%
1.53%
Meta CPA nearly doubled from $40 to $67-73 as spend scaled from $5.5k to $11.7k. CPM is stable (~$12), so the issue is creative/audience fatigue, not rising auction costs. Late March creative refresh may improve Q2.
Google Ads at $1k/month is a gem. 72 purchases at $14.08 CPA in March. Best efficiency in the entire data set. Captures brand search intent that Meta generates. Maintain at current level.
uk channel attribution (% of purchases)
flavour performance
uk and row sku breakdown by month
uk packs sold by flavour
Cold Mint dominates at 23.6% of UK volume and accelerating (492 → 760). Mint cluster (Cold Mint + Peppermint + Spearmint) = 55% of sales. High concentration in three SKUs. Currently OOS on Cold Mint and Peppermint — stock returning next week.
row packs sold by flavour
ROW has a flatter flavour profile. Cold Mint 10mg surged 3.4x (87 → 296). Ginger Peach and Matcha lead at ~19% each. Spicy range underperforms vs UK. Different palate preferences in the Swedish/international base.
q2 actions
what we're changing and what we need to decide
tier the subscription discount
10% off order 1 → 15% off order 2 → 20% from order 3. Free shipping on subscriptions retained. Filters out subscribe-and-cancel gaming while keeping genuine subscribers happy. May dip sign-up volume 15-20% but improves MRR quality.
restructure one-time purchase shipping
£1.99 for 10-pack one-time (currently free). 20-pack stays free. All subscriptions stay free. Estimated recovery: ~$890/month. Only affects one-time buyers, not subscribers.
accelerate e-retail listings
E-retail generates +$2.31/pack vs DTC's -$0.39. Two large UK sites in active conversations. NicPouchUK and VapeDirect inbound. GoPuff UK in progress. Haypp Group for ROW. This is the highest-leverage growth activity.
hold uk meta, monitor post-refresh
Don't scale until creative refresh CPA data proves efficiency (3-4 weeks). Maintain Google at $1-1.5k/month. If CPA stays above $50, reassess. If below $40, conversation about scaling. New SKU launches give fresh creative hooks every 2-3 weeks.
launch four new skus across q2
Weeks 1-2: Ads reduced due to Cold Mint + Peppermint OOS. Week 3 (now): Implement subscription tiering and shipping changes while traffic is lower. Week 4 (w/c 21st Apr): Restock + new SKUs land at 3PL. Full catalogue live. Ads back on. Week 6-7 (w/c 5th May): Blueberry 10mg — Club NOAT exclusive. Subscriber retention + churn reactivation. Week 8-9 (w/c 19th May): Cold Mint 13mg — full site. Top seller, stronger format. Week 11-12 (w/c 9th Jun): Nothing 4mg + Spicy Melon 4mg — 4mg strength test pair. Week 13 (w/c 23rd Jun): Blueberry exits exclusivity to full site and e-retail.
expand row meta beyond sweden
Currently only running Meta in Sweden at minimal spend. ROW ships to multiple European markets. Investigate legalities and ad policy for nicotine pouches in other European markets, and test expanding Meta targeting where compliant. Quick win to scale ROW volume without new infrastructure. ROW unit economics are already CM3 positive, so additional markets at similar efficiency would be immediately accretive.
